Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Their concerns are real. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? "It wasn't part of his strategy.". (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Their emotions and decision making process are real. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Still, the state's worth watching. They simply vote on merit. The divisions were everywhere. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. 108,000 people. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. i.e. Read about our approach to external linking. Will That Last?]. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Demographics (84) "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Go on, look them up! These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? What, if anything, did we miss? More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. In communities . Here's why. 4. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Really stop reading.

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